Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 0.091645 0.101809 0.112225 0.123670 0.135866 0.148448 0.162384
2025-02-09 0.074616 0.089764 0.106074 0.124818 0.145645 0.167960 0.193564
2025-02-16 0.061009 0.079036 0.099334 0.123589 0.151491 0.182312 0.218656
2025-02-23 0.054849 0.075569 0.099767 0.129576 0.164784 0.204557 0.252389
2025-03-02 0.049589 0.072310 0.099732 0.134426 0.176337 0.224572 0.283522
2025-03-09 0.041819 0.064962 0.093917 0.131603 0.178196 0.232843 0.300709
2025-03-16 0.034952 0.057962 0.087819 0.127769 0.178271 0.238559 0.314542
2025-03-23 0.032336 0.056349 0.088363 0.132067 0.188189 0.256018 0.342373
2025-03-30 0.029485 0.054076 0.087772 0.134697 0.195884 0.270713 0.366901
2025-04-06 0.027571 0.052936 0.088546 0.138993 0.205632 0.287940 0.394589
2025-04-13 0.024446 0.049651 0.086086 0.138759 0.209394 0.297637 0.413016
2025-04-20 0.024163 0.050720 0.089761 0.146851 0.224057 0.321116 0.448654
2025-04-27 0.021712 0.048262 0.088439 0.148332 0.230470 0.334801 0.473011
2025-05-04 0.019822 0.046561 0.088146 0.151253 0.238905 0.351279 0.501224
2025-05-11 0.017219 0.043336 0.085336 0.150445 0.242238 0.361196 0.521254
2025-05-18 0.016656 0.043671 0.087970 0.157482 0.256310 0.385156 0.559318
2025-05-25 0.015834 0.043424 0.089632 0.163082 0.268439 0.406662 0.594396
2025-06-01 0.013374 0.039725 0.085506 0.159899 0.268204 0.411786 0.608341
2025-06-08 0.011021 0.035853 0.080784 0.155543 0.266100 0.414267 0.618758
2025-06-15 0.010448 0.035629 0.082142 0.160442 0.277125 0.434326 0.652133
2025-06-22 0.009625 0.034746 0.082293 0.163436 0.285426 0.450768 0.680879
2025-06-29 0.009144 0.034574 0.083655 0.168319 0.296481 0.470999 0.714716
2025-07-06 0.008004 0.032673 0.081817 0.168053 0.300014 0.481018 0.735145